Cloud gaming threatening Flash games market?

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Cloud gaming threatening Flash games market?

Joe Dohn
Hi!

What do you guys think will on-demand gaming do to our good ol' browser based Flash games?
Will it eat a noticeable part of Flash games total market revenue? Or will it live separately like desktop MMOs kind of do? How could independent Flash developers adapt, assuming there's a need to?

For information, on demand gaming has theses properties:
(Pros)
- Low to medium hardware requirements even for the most demanding games (all game processing and rendering is done server side)
- 2 Mbps minimum bandwidth requirement (equivalent to streaming video)
- Nothing to install except probably a lightweight client that would work for all games of the on-demand gaming "platform"
- Controllers are supported
- You can play any game providing you have the bandwidth and one of the following devices: Computer, TV, potentially tablet and smartphones

(Cons)
- Expensive for developers
- For indie devs, this sounds too complex to set up without a third party provider
- Some lag is unavoidable since key presses have to be sent to the server for the game to react and then send the display back over the web
- Extremely prone to fingerprinting and behaviour analysis of all users
- When network is unstable, gameplay should be even more affected than it is with current MMO games

(Arguable threats to Flash games)
- Progressively raises the bar for customer expectations, causing in turn the necessity for higher and higher budgets (problem known to be indie dev unfriendly)
- Progressively lowers interest for flash games (they can only do so much, even with Stage3D and Starling)
==> Leading to decrease (or hampering the growth) of the Flash games market, to which indie devs may need to adapt. (not necessarily bad or good, just annoying when it forces you to modify projects already started)


Wha'daya think?

--
haXe - an open source web programming language
http://haxe.org
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Re: Cloud gaming threatening Flash games market?

davidedc
The trend seems to be of fatter and fatter clients though (even on the low-power devices).

Thin clients worked for tv and movies as the technology of the "end product" has been stable for such a long time. But I don't think that they could work for media that have an higher innovation rate.

But the drive in all other areas seems to be for more pixels, more FPSs, more interaction, stereoscopy, new input methods... thin clients didn't even crack the "browsing" use case... until that drive persists I don't see much appeal in them.

I think that gaming might become more network-served as we might "stream and cache" logic and data more and more, but I don't believe in a thin client future for gaming.

D

On Mon, Oct 31, 2011 at 4:19 PM, Joe Dohn <[hidden email]> wrote:
Hi!

What do you guys think will on-demand gaming do to our good ol' browser based Flash games?
Will it eat a noticeable part of Flash games total market revenue? Or will it live separately like desktop MMOs kind of do? How could independent Flash developers adapt, assuming there's a need to?

For information, on demand gaming has theses properties:
(Pros)
- Low to medium hardware requirements even for the most demanding games (all game processing and rendering is done server side)
- 2 Mbps minimum bandwidth requirement (equivalent to streaming video)
- Nothing to install except probably a lightweight client that would work for all games of the on-demand gaming "platform"
- Controllers are supported
- You can play any game providing you have the bandwidth and one of the following devices: Computer, TV, potentially tablet and smartphones

(Cons)
- Expensive for developers
- For indie devs, this sounds too complex to set up without a third party provider
- Some lag is unavoidable since key presses have to be sent to the server for the game to react and then send the display back over the web
- Extremely prone to fingerprinting and behaviour analysis of all users
- When network is unstable, gameplay should be even more affected than it is with current MMO games

(Arguable threats to Flash games)
- Progressively raises the bar for customer expectations, causing in turn the necessity for higher and higher budgets (problem known to be indie dev unfriendly)
- Progressively lowers interest for flash games (they can only do so much, even with Stage3D and Starling)
==> Leading to decrease (or hampering the growth) of the Flash games market, to which indie devs may need to adapt. (not necessarily bad or good, just annoying when it forces you to modify projects already started)


Wha'daya think?

--
haXe - an open source web programming language
http://haxe.org


--
haXe - an open source web programming language
http://haxe.org
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Re: Cloud gaming threatening Flash games market?

Juraj Kirchheim
In reply to this post by Joe Dohn
Flash games cater a specific audience, that doesn't really care for
super-duper-cutting-edge 3d effects. Otherwise Unity would have taken
over 5 years ago.

See: http://xkcd.com/484/

On Mon, Oct 31, 2011 at 5:19 PM, Joe Dohn <[hidden email]> wrote:

> Hi!
> What do you guys think will on-demand gaming do to our good ol' browser
> based Flash games?
> Will it eat a noticeable part of Flash games total market revenue? Or will
> it live separately like desktop MMOs kind of do? How could independent Flash
> developers adapt, assuming there's a need to?
> For information, on demand gaming has theses properties:
> (Pros)
> - Low to medium hardware requirements even for the most demanding games (all
> game processing and rendering is done server side)
> - 2 Mbps minimum bandwidth requirement (equivalent to streaming video)
> - Nothing to install except probably a lightweight client that would work
> for all games of the on-demand gaming "platform"
> - Controllers are supported
> - You can play any game providing you have the bandwidth and one of the
> following devices: Computer, TV, potentially tablet and smartphones
> (Cons)
> - Expensive for developers
> - For indie devs, this sounds too complex to set up without a third party
> provider
> - Some lag is unavoidable since key presses have to be sent to the server
> for the game to react and then send the display back over the web
> - Extremely prone to fingerprinting and behaviour analysis of all users
> - When network is unstable, gameplay should be even more affected than it is
> with current MMO games
> (Arguable threats to Flash games)
> - Progressively raises the bar for customer expectations, causing in turn
> the necessity for higher and higher budgets (problem known to be indie dev
> unfriendly)
> - Progressively lowers interest for flash games (they can only do so much,
> even with Stage3D and Starling)
> ==> Leading to decrease (or hampering the growth) of the Flash games market,
> to which indie devs may need to adapt. (not necessarily bad or good, just
> annoying when it forces you to modify projects already started)
>
>
> Wha'daya think?
>
> --
> haXe - an open source web programming language
> http://haxe.org
>

--
haXe - an open source web programming language
http://haxe.org
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Re: Cloud gaming threatening Flash games market?

davidedc
If that is true then yes, (part of) gaming will be commoditized and we might play "low-end-low-innovation" games on set-top-boxes as some kind of "extra channel".

(Still I don't see why technically it would be advantageous to go through the image coding/decoding bit, I think it's cheaper to send the game over network as we do now.)

But I don't think it's true though, and we see it again and again in low-end consoles and mobile and flash games - people do care about immersiveness and pixel count and anti-aliasing and filters and particles and high-count sprites and 3d and FPSs - and Flash is innovating and riding that wave just like everyone else. And I don't think that that kind of technical innovation is only useful to big-budget gaming - I think it shows through in indie productions too.

I think xkcd's stripe pays homage to a romantic idea that hw doesn't matter - but that guy in the comic is probably playing minecraft on a GPU-accelerated desktop that he changes every two or three years.

If that innovation wave stops then the thin-clients will kick-in, otherwise I personally don't think they will.

Again, thin clients didn't even crack browsing, which was thought to be the use case that would kill fat clients, I'd say that rather the opposite has happened.

D

On Tue, Nov 1, 2011 at 10:34 AM, Juraj Kirchheim <[hidden email]> wrote:
Flash games cater a specific audience, that doesn't really care for
super-duper-cutting-edge 3d effects. Otherwise Unity would have taken
over 5 years ago.

See: http://xkcd.com/484/

On Mon, Oct 31, 2011 at 5:19 PM, Joe Dohn <[hidden email]> wrote:
> Hi!
> What do you guys think will on-demand gaming do to our good ol' browser
> based Flash games?
> Will it eat a noticeable part of Flash games total market revenue? Or will
> it live separately like desktop MMOs kind of do? How could independent Flash
> developers adapt, assuming there's a need to?
> For information, on demand gaming has theses properties:
> (Pros)
> - Low to medium hardware requirements even for the most demanding games (all
> game processing and rendering is done server side)
> - 2 Mbps minimum bandwidth requirement (equivalent to streaming video)
> - Nothing to install except probably a lightweight client that would work
> for all games of the on-demand gaming "platform"
> - Controllers are supported
> - You can play any game providing you have the bandwidth and one of the
> following devices: Computer, TV, potentially tablet and smartphones
> (Cons)
> - Expensive for developers
> - For indie devs, this sounds too complex to set up without a third party
> provider
> - Some lag is unavoidable since key presses have to be sent to the server
> for the game to react and then send the display back over the web
> - Extremely prone to fingerprinting and behaviour analysis of all users
> - When network is unstable, gameplay should be even more affected than it is
> with current MMO games
> (Arguable threats to Flash games)
> - Progressively raises the bar for customer expectations, causing in turn
> the necessity for higher and higher budgets (problem known to be indie dev
> unfriendly)
> - Progressively lowers interest for flash games (they can only do so much,
> even with Stage3D and Starling)
> ==> Leading to decrease (or hampering the growth) of the Flash games market,
> to which indie devs may need to adapt. (not necessarily bad or good, just
> annoying when it forces you to modify projects already started)
>
>
> Wha'daya think?
>
> --
> haXe - an open source web programming language
> http://haxe.org
>

--
haXe - an open source web programming language
http://haxe.org


--
haXe - an open source web programming language
http://haxe.org
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Re: Re: [haXe] Cloud gaming threatening Flash games market?

Rob Fell

I've been thinking about this for a while too ... imo ...

The latest GPU 3D web players (Flash / Unity / WebGL etc) enable us to
do today what Shockwave3D did 10 years ago.  Therefore nice to have, but
nothing new.
Cloud gaming, by contrast, is a "paradigm shift" especially for an
increasingly casual audience with diverse devices.

However the popularity of both Wii & Social Network games illustrated
that technical-innovation is secondary to fun-invention in the games
industry.  Therefore, right now, I'd bet on "none of the above".

Rob


On 11:59 AM, Davide Della Casa wrote:

> If that is true then yes, (part of) gaming will be commoditized and we
> might play "low-end-low-innovation" games on set-top-boxes as some
> kind of "extra channel".
>
> (Still I don't see why technically it would be advantageous to go
> through the image coding/decoding bit, I think it's cheaper to send
> the game over network as we do now.)
>
> But I don't think it's true though, and we see it again and again in
> low-end consoles and mobile and flash games - people do care about
> immersiveness and pixel count and anti-aliasing and filters and
> particles and high-count sprites and 3d and FPSs - and Flash is
> innovating and riding that wave just like everyone else. And I don't
> think that that kind of technical innovation is only useful to
> big-budget gaming - I think it shows through in indie productions too.
>
> I think xkcd's stripe pays homage to a romantic idea that hw doesn't
> matter - but that guy in the comic is probably playing minecraft on a
> GPU-accelerated desktop that he changes every two or three years.
>
> If that innovation wave stops then the thin-clients will kick-in,
> otherwise I personally don't think they will.
>
> Again, thin clients didn't even crack browsing, which was thought to
> be the use case that would kill fat clients, I'd say that rather the
> opposite has happened.
>
> D
>
> On Tue, Nov 1, 2011 at 10:34 AM, Juraj Kirchheim
> <[hidden email] <mailto:[hidden email]>> wrote:
>
>     Flash games cater a specific audience, that doesn't really care for
>     super-duper-cutting-edge 3d effects. Otherwise Unity would have taken
>     over 5 years ago.
>
>     See: http://xkcd.com/484/
>
>     On Mon, Oct 31, 2011 at 5:19 PM, Joe Dohn <[hidden email]
>     <mailto:[hidden email]>> wrote:
>     > Hi!
>     > What do you guys think will on-demand gaming do to our good ol'
>     browser
>     > based Flash games?
>     > Will it eat a noticeable part of Flash games total market
>     revenue? Or will
>     > it live separately like desktop MMOs kind of do? How could
>     independent Flash
>     > developers adapt, assuming there's a need to?
>     > For information, on demand gaming has theses properties:
>     > (Pros)
>     > - Low to medium hardware requirements even for the most
>     demanding games (all
>     > game processing and rendering is done server side)
>     > - 2 Mbps minimum bandwidth requirement (equivalent to streaming
>     video)
>     > - Nothing to install except probably a lightweight client that
>     would work
>     > for all games of the on-demand gaming "platform"
>     > - Controllers are supported
>     > - You can play any game providing you have the bandwidth and one
>     of the
>     > following devices: Computer, TV, potentially tablet and smartphones
>     > (Cons)
>     > - Expensive for developers
>     > - For indie devs, this sounds too complex to set up without a
>     third party
>     > provider
>     > - Some lag is unavoidable since key presses have to be sent to
>     the server
>     > for the game to react and then send the display back over the web
>     > - Extremely prone to fingerprinting and behaviour analysis of
>     all users
>     > - When network is unstable, gameplay should be even more
>     affected than it is
>     > with current MMO games
>     > (Arguable threats to Flash games)
>     > - Progressively raises the bar for customer expectations,
>     causing in turn
>     > the necessity for higher and higher budgets (problem known to be
>     indie dev
>     > unfriendly)
>     > - Progressively lowers interest for flash games (they can only
>     do so much,
>     > even with Stage3D and Starling)
>     > ==> Leading to decrease (or hampering the growth) of the Flash
>     games market,
>     > to which indie devs may need to adapt. (not necessarily bad or
>     good, just
>     > annoying when it forces you to modify projects already started)
>     >
>     >
>     > Wha'daya think?
>     >
>     > --
>     > haXe - an open source web programming language
>     > http://haxe.org
>     >
>
>     --
>     haXe - an open source web programming language
>     http://haxe.org
>
>
>

--
haXe - an open source web programming language
http://haxe.org
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Re: Re: [haXe] Cloud gaming threatening Flash games market?

davidedc
I think there are other reasons why we needed to overlap and sometimes re-invent those plugin technologies over and over again, such as maturity and cost of dev environments, evolution of the browser hosting them, penetration of broadband / gpu acceleration...

I wouldn't tribute those cycles to a ceiling in what gamers want, it's rather that we've been building on a shifting dune. Which is what makes me think that the innovation rate is so high that it's too early a stage for thin clients.


On Tue, Nov 1, 2011 at 8:04 PM, Rob Fell <[hidden email]> wrote:

I've been thinking about this for a while too ... imo ...

The latest GPU 3D web players (Flash / Unity / WebGL etc) enable us to do today what Shockwave3D did 10 years ago.  Therefore nice to have, but nothing new.
Cloud gaming, by contrast, is a "paradigm shift" especially for an increasingly casual audience with diverse devices.

However the popularity of both Wii & Social Network games illustrated that technical-innovation is secondary to fun-invention in the games industry.  Therefore, right now, I'd bet on "none of the above".

Rob



On 11:59 AM, Davide Della Casa wrote:
If that is true then yes, (part of) gaming will be commoditized and we might play "low-end-low-innovation" games on set-top-boxes as some kind of "extra channel".

(Still I don't see why technically it would be advantageous to go through the image coding/decoding bit, I think it's cheaper to send the game over network as we do now.)

But I don't think it's true though, and we see it again and again in low-end consoles and mobile and flash games - people do care about immersiveness and pixel count and anti-aliasing and filters and particles and high-count sprites and 3d and FPSs - and Flash is innovating and riding that wave just like everyone else. And I don't think that that kind of technical innovation is only useful to big-budget gaming - I think it shows through in indie productions too.

I think xkcd's stripe pays homage to a romantic idea that hw doesn't matter - but that guy in the comic is probably playing minecraft on a GPU-accelerated desktop that he changes every two or three years.

If that innovation wave stops then the thin-clients will kick-in, otherwise I personally don't think they will.

Again, thin clients didn't even crack browsing, which was thought to be the use case that would kill fat clients, I'd say that rather the opposite has happened.

D

On Tue, Nov 1, 2011 at 10:34 AM, Juraj Kirchheim <[hidden email] <mailto:[hidden email]>> wrote:

   Flash games cater a specific audience, that doesn't really care for
   super-duper-cutting-edge 3d effects. Otherwise Unity would have taken
   over 5 years ago.

   See: http://xkcd.com/484/

   On Mon, Oct 31, 2011 at 5:19 PM, Joe Dohn <[hidden email]
   <mailto:[hidden email]>> wrote:
   > Hi!
   > What do you guys think will on-demand gaming do to our good ol'
   browser
   > based Flash games?
   > Will it eat a noticeable part of Flash games total market
   revenue? Or will
   > it live separately like desktop MMOs kind of do? How could
   independent Flash
   > developers adapt, assuming there's a need to?
   > For information, on demand gaming has theses properties:
   > (Pros)
   > - Low to medium hardware requirements even for the most
   demanding games (all
   > game processing and rendering is done server side)
   > - 2 Mbps minimum bandwidth requirement (equivalent to streaming
   video)
   > - Nothing to install except probably a lightweight client that
   would work
   > for all games of the on-demand gaming "platform"
   > - Controllers are supported
   > - You can play any game providing you have the bandwidth and one
   of the
   > following devices: Computer, TV, potentially tablet and smartphones
   > (Cons)
   > - Expensive for developers
   > - For indie devs, this sounds too complex to set up without a
   third party
   > provider
   > - Some lag is unavoidable since key presses have to be sent to
   the server
   > for the game to react and then send the display back over the web
   > - Extremely prone to fingerprinting and behaviour analysis of
   all users
   > - When network is unstable, gameplay should be even more
   affected than it is
   > with current MMO games
   > (Arguable threats to Flash games)
   > - Progressively raises the bar for customer expectations,
   causing in turn
   > the necessity for higher and higher budgets (problem known to be
   indie dev
   > unfriendly)
   > - Progressively lowers interest for flash games (they can only
   do so much,
   > even with Stage3D and Starling)
   > ==> Leading to decrease (or hampering the growth) of the Flash
   games market,
   > to which indie devs may need to adapt. (not necessarily bad or
   good, just
   > annoying when it forces you to modify projects already started)
   >
   >
   > Wha'daya think?
   >
   > --
   > haXe - an open source web programming language
   > http://haxe.org
   >

   --
   haXe - an open source web programming language
   http://haxe.org




--
haXe - an open source web programming language
http://haxe.org


--
haXe - an open source web programming language
http://haxe.org